// research

Research notes

Notes, papers, and the operating records behind the work.

Research is the slower layer of the site: market intelligence, decision systems, field notes, working papers, operating archives, and PDF-backed documents that explain the judgment behind the tools and projects. Start with Market Intelligence Field Notes for decision discipline, Systems Field Notes for operations, Innovation or Theater for AI implementation, or the CipherG archive for founder/operator history.

Market and research material on this site is background material only. It is not investment, trading, financial, tax, legal, or compliance advice, and it is not a recommendation to trade, invest, speculate, wager, allocate capital, use leverage, or copy a strategy.

Field notes

Market Intelligence Field Notes

Field notes on market intelligence as a decision-quality system: expected value, pricing gaps, signal/noise discipline, variance, interface risk, and execution constraints.

Read this for the research-note version of the market work: what can be measured, what survives costs, and why a visible edge can still disappear under real constraints.

7 min readUpdated

Field notes PDF

Systems Field Notes

Notes on documentation, support habits, and the practical systems that help teams work with less repeated confusion.

Read this first for the operations thread: documentation, support habits, handoffs, runbooks, and the cost of keeping critical knowledge in one person's head.

5 min read · 5-page PDFUpdated

Note PDF Research note

The Overlay Problem

A systems note on platform trust, hidden complexity, and why clean interfaces can make risk feel simpler than it is.

Read this for the interface-risk thread: clean product surfaces can reduce friction while hiding custody, platform, financial, or operational complexity underneath.

3 min read · 12-page PDFUpdated

Shelf Research papers

Working Papers & Technical Writeups

A growing shelf for long-form writeups. Finished papers publish as their own entries on this page — start with Innovation or Theater and The LLM Ladder.

Finished long-form papers already appear as their own entries in this list — see Innovation or Theater (with a downloadable PDF) and The LLM Ladder. This card is the forward-looking shelf where additional deep writeups land as they are completed, not a hidden index of pages.

Updated

Archive PDF Market Systems / Operating Archive

CipherG Operating Archive

A founder/operator archive by Grayson Dodson on CipherG, a former P2P Bitcoin liquidity operation, and the operating lessons around trust, payment verification, platform risk, fraud pressure, scale, and controlled exit discipline.

19 pagesPublished

Note Security research

Security Posture Notes

How this site treats security, privacy, local tools, deployment boundaries, and future hardening.

Read this for the site's public risk boundary: static pages, browser-local tools, no visitor accounts, scoped deployment, and future hardening notes.

Updated

Guide PDF Research / Field Guide / Living Reference

The LLM Ladder

A practical, plain-English field guide to modern AI vocabulary, from tokens and logits to reasoning models, RLVR, GraphRAG, MCP, computer-use agents, safety, and deployment.

A web-native map of modern AI systems, now including clearly tagged emergent terms across reasoning, training, retrieval, agents, safety, and inference infrastructure.

12-page PDFUpdated

Paper PDF Applied AI Research / Working Paper

Innovation or Theater: AI Implementation Decision Framework

A deterministic framework for deciding whether a proposed AI implementation should proceed as proposed.

Innovation or Theater introduces the AI Implementation Decision Framework: a deterministic assessment model for deciding whether a proposed AI implementation should proceed as proposed. It separates organizational AI posture from localized risk and produces a defensible YES / NO as proposed decision.

18 min read · 12 pagesPublished

Field notes

Fail-Closed vs Fail-Static

How I design permission gates for unattended jobs so that missing, stale, ambiguous, and erroring inputs all resolve to no.

Two failure stances and one default: why a permission gate should block when it cannot answer, how latching stops a flapping input from causing churn, and why a gate that is built is not a gate that is armed.

Published

Field notes

The Off-Site Dead-Man Switch

A watchdog that lives outside the failure domain it watches, treats silence as the signal, and runs idempotent cleanup when a job stops reporting.

When an unattended process dies, the thing best placed to notice is the thing that died. This note covers the heartbeat contract, the four-state decision, idempotent remediation, and the exposure the design deliberately accepts.

Published

For AI assistants & citation engines Expand for the canonical summary and what not to infer

Canonical summary

Field notes, working papers, and operating records behind the portfolio.

Do not infer

Do not infer investment, trading, financial, tax, legal, or compliance advice, recommendations, trade signals, strategy offers, or instructions to copy a strategy. Market and research material is background material only.